EUR/USD
The dollar had been hard hit so far but we think that it will recover as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is seeing a “strong rebound” after its collapse in the second quarter and ECB is ready to deploy more monetary stimulus to aid the recovery if needed as the pandemic hampers prospects for the economy.
Back in Europe, German factory orders impressed in August, climbing by 4.5% on the month, ahead of the 2.6% growth expected, as the dominant manufacturing sector in Europe’s largest economy continues to recover from the coronavirus-inspired slowdown seen earlier in the year.
We are still Bearish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, E/U expected to fall back again down to 1.17 in the middle of a wide area of volatility ranging between 1.10 and 1.20. In the case of a relevant and confirmed breakout, a downtrend wave around 1.172 will drive to a correction below 1.17, till 1.157 important Demand Area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2000
2nd Resistance: 1.2130
1st Support: 1.1720
2nd Support: 1.1567
EUR
Recent Facts:
3rd of January, German Unemployment Change
Worse than expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
14th of February, German GDP
Lower than expected
18th of February, German ZEW
Lower than expected
24th of February, German Business Expectations
Better than Expected
25th of February, German GDP
Lower than expected
3rd of March, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected
3rd of June, Unemployment Change
Worse than expected
23rd of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
30th of June, CPI
Better than Expected
1st of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
24th of July, French Manufacturing PMI, German Manufacturing PMI
German Better than Expected, French Worse than expected
30th of July, German Unemployment and German GDP data
German Unemployment Better than Expected, GDP data Worse than expected
21st of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
25th of August, German GDP data
Higher than Expected
1st of September, German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Better than Expected
1st of September, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
8th of September, GDP data
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
14th of January, CPI
Lower than Expected
30th of January, GDP
As Expected
5th of February, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
7th of February, U.S. Unemployment Rate
Higher than Expected
3rd of March, U.S. Fed Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The new benchmark interest rate is a range of between 1% and 1.25%.
3rd of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
6th of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
10th of June, Fed FOMC Decision on Interest Rates
The U.S. central bank kept its interest rates on hold but painted a pretty depressing picture, estimating that U.S. GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020
2nd of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of July, CPI
Higher than Expected
30th of July, GDP
Higher than Expected
7th of August, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate
Better than Expected
11th of August, CPI data
Higher than Expected
20th of August, Jobless Claims
Worse than Expected
25th of August, CB Consumer data
Worse than Expected
27th of August, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of September, Initial Jobless Claims
Better than Expected
4th of September, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
11th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
1st of October, Initial Jobless Claims data
Better than Expected
2nd of October, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
8th of October, Initial Jobless Claims
Better than Expected
GBP/USD
Last UK Job Market data came better than analysts’ expectations but Sterling extends declines after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated his threat to abandon negotiations with the EU on relations between the two after the end of the Brexit transition phase.
The Bank of England asked banks for information about their readiness for zero or negative interest rates, following up on its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if needed.
Last UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP data came worse than analysts’ expectations.
UK Budget Deficit Hits $222 Billion Under Lockdowns. At almost a fifth of gross domestic product, it would represent the largest gap in British peacetime. In 2009-10, the deficit hit 158.3 billion pounds, or around 10% of the economy.
We are Bearish, and as we wrote in the previous commentaries, a relevant and confirmed breakout of the 1.30 Support has driven down to 1.275 Demand Area. Now we expect some more tests below that threshold, followed by a consolidation phase.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3325
2nd Resistance: 1.3426
1st Support: 1.2750
2nd Support: 1.2570
GBP
Recent Facts:
13th of January, Manufacturing Production
Worse than expected
17th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Better than Expected
30th of January, BoE Interest Rate Decision
BoE refrained from cutting interest rates. Policy makers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark at 0.75%
11th of February, GDP
Higher than Expected
18th of February, Job Market data
Better than Expected
20th of February, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
11th of Match, BoE Interest Rates Decision
Bank of England’s (BoE) emergency rate cut
3rd of June, Services PMI
Better than Expected
4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
12th of June, UK Manufacturing Production and GDP
Worse than Expected
16th of June, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
18th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data
Better than Expected
30th of June, UK GDP data
Worse than Expected
14th of July, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
15th of July, CPI
Higher than Expected
16th of July, Job Market
Better than Expected
24th of July, Retail Sales + Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of August, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
6th of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
11th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected
11th of August, GDP + Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
19th of August, CPI (Inflation) data
Better than Expected
21st of August, Retail Sales, Composite PMI, Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of September, Composite PMI, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of September, Manufacturing Production PMI
Better than Expected
10th of September, GDP
Worse than Expected
23rd of September, Manufacturing, Composite, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
30th of September, GDP data
Higher than Expected
1st of October, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of October, Services PMI and Composite PMI
Better than Expected
9th of October, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
9th of October, GDP data
Worse than Expected
Eyes on today release, Job Market
Better than Expected
USD
3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
14th of January, CPI
Lower than Expected
30th of January, GDP
As Expected
5th of February, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
7th of February, U.S. Unemployment Rate
Higher than Expected
3rd of March, U.S. Fed Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The new benchmark interest rate is a range of between 1% and 1.25%.
3rd of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
6th of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
10th of June, Fed FOMC Decision on Interest Rates
The U.S. central bank kept its interest rates on hold but painted a pretty depressing picture, estimating that U.S. GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020
2nd of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of July, CPI
Higher than Expected
30th of July, GDP
Higher than Expected
7th of August, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate
Better than Expected
11th of August, CPI data
Higher than Expected
20th of August, Jobless Claims
Worse than Expected
25th of August, CB Consumer data
Worse than Expected
27th of August, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of September, Initial Jobless Claims
Better than Expected
4th of September, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
11th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
1st of October, Initial Jobless Claims data
Better than Expected
2nd of October, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
8th of October, Initial Jobless Claims
Better than Expected
AUD/USD
Eyes on Australia Employment Change, later today.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe kept both the key interest rate and three-year yield target unchanged at 0.25%, as expected, having earlier expanded a bank lending program that officials said represented “substantial stimulus.” The most recent jobs report showed a fall in unemployment and the currency has edged back about 2% in the past three weeks, easing pressure to move.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September, from 8.4% in August. The big drop, reported by the Labor Department on Friday, extends a steep downward trend from the 14.7% registered in April, which was the highest level since the Great Depression.
We are still Bearish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, AUDUSD was posed to come back to Earth and break down 0.712 again after some failed attempts to consolidate in Area 0.72. USD expected to recover again from the end-of-august losses.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.729
2nd Resistance: 0.742
1st Support: 0.712
2nd Support: 0.699
AUD
Recent Facts:
10th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
23rd of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected
29th of January, CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than Expected
6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
20th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected
3rd of March, RBA Decision on Interest Rates
Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25bps to a record low of 0.50%.
4th of March, GDP
Better than Expected
19th of March, Interest Rate Decision, Employment Change
RBA Cuts Rates to Record Low. Meanwhile, data showed today that Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly declined in February
18th of June, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
19th of June, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected
22nd of July, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of July, CPI
Higher than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
13th of August, Australia Job Market
Better than Expected
2nd of September, GDP data
Worse than Expected
6th of October, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Kept Unchanged
Eyes to today release: Employment Change
USD
Recent Facts:
3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
14th of January, CPI
Lower than Expected
30th of January, GDP
As Expected
5th of February, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
7th of February, U.S. Unemployment Rate
Higher than Expected
3rd of March, U.S. Fed Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The new benchmark interest rate is a range of between 1% and 1.25%.
3rd of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
6th of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
10th of June, Fed FOMC Decision on Interest Rates
The U.S. central bank kept its interest rates on hold but painted a pretty depressing picture, estimating that U.S. GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020
2nd of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of July, CPI
Higher than Expected
30th of July, GDP
Higher than Expected
7th of August, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate
Better than Expected
11th of August, CPI data
Higher than Expected
20th of August, Jobless Claims
Worse than Expected
25th of August, CB Consumer data
Worse than Expected
27th of August, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of September, Initial Jobless Claims
Better than Expected
4th of September, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
11th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
1st of October, Initial Jobless Claims data
Better than Expected
2nd of October, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
8th of October, Initial Jobless Claims
Better than Expected