EUR/USD

Royal Capital Markets - The 27 EU national leaders are due to step up contingency plans for an abrupt economic split if no agreement emerges in time on trading with Britain without tariffs or quotas. The dollar inched higher as rising coronavirus cases and scant progress towards a U.S. stimulus deal unsettled investors, while the Aussie dropped to a one-week low after the central bank chief hinted of a possible rate cut. - Forex Trading 2020

The dollar had been hard hit so far but we think that it will recover as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is seeing a “strong rebound” after its collapse in the second quarter and ECB is ready to deploy more monetary stimulus to aid the recovery if needed as the pandemic hampers prospects for the economy.

 

Back in Europe, German factory orders impressed in August, climbing by 4.5% on the month, ahead of the 2.6% growth expected, as the dominant manufacturing sector in Europe’s largest economy continues to recover from the coronavirus-inspired slowdown seen earlier in the year.

 

We are still Bearish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, E/U expected to fall back again down to 1.17 in the middle of a wide area of volatility ranging between 1.10 and 1.20. In the case of a relevant and confirmed breakout, a downtrend wave around 1.172 will drive to a correction below 1.17, till 1.157 important Demand Area.

 

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

 

Weekly Trend: Bearish

1st Resistance: 1.2000

2nd Resistance: 1.2130

1st Support: 1.1720

2nd Support: 1.1567

 

 

EUR

 

Recent Facts:

 

3rd of January, German Unemployment Change

Worse than expected

 

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

3rd of January, German Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

14th of February, German GDP

Lower than expected

 

18th of February, German ZEW

Lower than expected

 

24th of February, German Business Expectations

Better than Expected

 

25th of February, German GDP

Lower than expected

 

3rd of March, Eurozone CPI

Higher than Expected

 

3rd of June, Unemployment Change

Worse than expected

 

23rd of June, German Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

30th of June, CPI

Better than Expected

 

1st of July, German Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

24th of July, French Manufacturing PMI, German Manufacturing PMI

German Better than Expected, French Worse than expected

 

30th of July, German Unemployment and German GDP data

German Unemployment Better than Expected, GDP data Worse than expected

 

21st of August, German Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

25th of August, German GDP data

Higher than Expected

 

1st of September, German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change

German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Better than Expected

 

1st of September, Eurozone CPI

Lower than Expected

 

8th of September, GDP data

Better than Expected

 

 

USD

 

Recent Facts:

 

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected

 

10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls

Worse than Expected

 

14th of January, CPI

Lower than Expected

 

30th of January, GDP

As Expected

 

5th of February, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

7th of February, U.S. Unemployment Rate

Higher than Expected

 

3rd of March, U.S. Fed Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The new benchmark interest rate is a range of between 1% and 1.25%.

 

3rd of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

6th of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

10th of June, Fed FOMC Decision on Interest Rates

The U.S. central bank kept its interest rates on hold but painted a pretty depressing picture, estimating that U.S. GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020

 

2nd of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

14th of July, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

30th of July, GDP

Higher than Expected

 

7th of August, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate

Better than Expected

 

11th of August, CPI data

Higher than Expected

 

20th of August, Jobless Claims

Worse than Expected

 

25th of August, CB Consumer data

Worse than Expected

 

27th of August, GDP

Better than Expected

 

3rd of September, Initial Jobless Claims

Better than Expected

 

4th of September, Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

11th of September, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

1st of October, Initial Jobless Claims data

Better than Expected

 

2nd of October, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

8th of October, Initial Jobless Claims

Better than Expected

 

 

 

GBP/USD

Royal Capital Markets - The 27 EU national leaders are due to step up contingency plans for an abrupt economic split if no agreement emerges in time on trading with Britain without tariffs or quotas. The dollar inched higher as rising coronavirus cases and scant progress towards a U.S. stimulus deal unsettled investors, while the Aussie dropped to a one-week low after the central bank chief hinted of a possible rate cut. - Forex Trading 2020

The 27 EU national leaders are due to step up contingency plans for an abrupt economic split if no agreement emerges in time on trading with Britain without tariffs or quotas.

 

Last UK Job Market data came better than analysts’ expectations but Sterling extends declines after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated his threat to abandon negotiations with the EU on relations between the two after the end of the Brexit transition phase.

 

The Bank of England asked banks for information about their readiness for zero or negative interest rates, following up on its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if needed.

 

Last UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

 

UK Budget Deficit Hits $222 Billion Under Lockdowns. At almost a fifth of gross domestic product, it would represent the largest gap in British peacetime. In 2009-10, the deficit hit 158.3 billion pounds, or around 10% of the economy.

 

We are Bearish, and as we wrote in the previous commentaries, a relevant and confirmed breakout of the 1.30 Support has driven down to 1.275 Demand Area. Now we expect some more tests below that threshold, followed by a consolidation phase.

 

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

 

Weekly Trend: Bearish

1st Resistance: 1.3325

2nd Resistance: 1.3426

1st Support: 1.2750

2nd Support: 1.2570

 

 

GBP

 

Recent Facts:

 

13th of January, Manufacturing Production

Worse than expected

 

17th of January, Retail Sales

Worse than Expected

 

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI

Better than Expected

 

30th of January, BoE Interest Rate Decision

BoE refrained from cutting interest rates. Policy makers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark at 0.75%

 

11th of February, GDP

Higher than Expected

 

18th of February, Job Market data

Better than Expected

 

20th of February, Retail Sales

Better than Expected

 

11th of Match, BoE Interest Rates Decision

Bank of England’s (BoE) emergency rate cut

 

3rd of June, Services PMI

Better than Expected

 

4th of June, Construction PMI

Worse than Expected

 

12th of June, UK Manufacturing Production and GDP

Worse than Expected

 

16th of June, Job Market data

Worse than Expected

 

18th of June, Retail Sales

Better than Expected

 

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data

Better than Expected

 

30th of June, UK GDP data

Worse than Expected

 

14th of July, Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

15th of July, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

16th of July, Job Market

Better than Expected

 

24th of July, Retail Sales + Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI

Better than Expected

 

3rd of August, Manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected

 

6th of August, Construction PMI

Better than Expected

 

11th of August, Job Market

Worse than Expected

 

11th of August, GDP + Manufacturing Production

Better than Expected

 

19th of August, CPI (Inflation) data

Better than Expected

 

21st of August, Retail Sales, Composite PMI, Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

3rd of September, Composite PMI, Services PMI

Worse than Expected

 

10th of September, Manufacturing Production PMI

Better than Expected

 

10th of September, GDP

Worse than Expected

 

23rd of September, Manufacturing, Composite, Services PMI

Worse than Expected

 

30th of September, GDP data

Higher than Expected

 

1st of October, Manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected

 

5th of October, Services PMI and Composite PMI

Better than Expected

 

9th of October, Manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected

 

9th of October, GDP data

Worse than Expected

 

Eyes on today release, Job Market

Better than Expected

 

 

USD

 

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected

 

10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls

Worse than Expected

 

14th of January, CPI

Lower than Expected

 

30th of January, GDP

As Expected

 

5th of February, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

7th of February, U.S. Unemployment Rate

Higher than Expected

 

3rd of March, U.S. Fed Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The new benchmark interest rate is a range of between 1% and 1.25%.

 

3rd of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

6th of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

10th of June, Fed FOMC Decision on Interest Rates

The U.S. central bank kept its interest rates on hold but painted a pretty depressing picture, estimating that U.S. GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020

 

2nd of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

14th of July, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

30th of July, GDP

Higher than Expected

 

7th of August, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate

Better than Expected

 

11th of August, CPI data

Higher than Expected

 

20th of August, Jobless Claims

Worse than Expected

 

25th of August, CB Consumer data

Worse than Expected

 

27th of August, GDP

Better than Expected

 

3rd of September, Initial Jobless Claims

Better than Expected

 

4th of September, Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

11th of September, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

1st of October, Initial Jobless Claims data

Better than Expected

 

2nd of October, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

8th of October, Initial Jobless Claims

Better than Expected

 

 

 

AUD/USD

Royal Capital Markets - The 27 EU national leaders are due to step up contingency plans for an abrupt economic split if no agreement emerges in time on trading with Britain without tariffs or quotas. The dollar inched higher as rising coronavirus cases and scant progress towards a U.S. stimulus deal unsettled investors, while the Aussie dropped to a one-week low after the central bank chief hinted of a possible rate cut. - Forex Trading 2020

Last Australia Employment Change data came higher than expected.

 

The Aussie dropped to a one-week low after the central bank chief hinted of a possible rate cut or bond buying. The Australian dollar lost half a percent to $0.7129 after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe mentioned bond buying and a small rate cut as among options for policy support during the next stages of recovery.

 

We are still Bearish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, AUDUSD was posed to come back to Earth and break down 0.712 again after some failed attempts to consolidate in Area 0.72. USD expected to recover again from the end-of-august losses.

 

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

 

Weekly Trend: Bearish

1st Resistance: 0.729

2nd Resistance: 0.742

1st Support: 0.712

2nd Support: 0.699

 

 

AUD

 

Recent Facts:

 

10th of January, Retail Sales

Better than Expected

 

23rd of January, Employment Change

Better than Expected

 

29th of January, CPI (Inflation) data

Higher than Expected

 

6th of February, Retail Sales

Worse than Expected

 

20th of February, Employment Change

Better than Expected

 

3rd of March, RBA Decision on Interest Rates

Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25bps to a record low of 0.50%.

 

4th of March, GDP

Better than Expected

 

19th of March, Interest Rate Decision, Employment Change

RBA Cuts Rates to Record Low. Meanwhile, data showed today that Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly declined in February

 

18th of June, Employment Change

Worse than Expected

 

19th of June, Retail Sales

Worse than Expected

 

15th of July, Employment Change

Better than Expected

 

22nd of July, Retail Sales

Worse than Expected

 

29th of July, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales

Better than Expected

 

13th of August, Australia Job Market

Better than Expected

 

2nd of September, GDP data

Worse than Expected

 

6th of October, RBA Interest Rate Decision

Kept Unchanged

 

15th of October,  Employment Change

Better than Expected

 

 

USD

 

Recent Facts:

 

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Worse than Expected

 

10th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls

Worse than Expected

 

14th of January, CPI

Lower than Expected

 

30th of January, GDP

As Expected

 

5th of February, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

7th of February, U.S. Unemployment Rate

Higher than Expected

 

3rd of March, U.S. Fed Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The new benchmark interest rate is a range of between 1% and 1.25%.

 

3rd of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Better than Expected

 

6th of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

10th of June, Fed FOMC Decision on Interest Rates

The U.S. central bank kept its interest rates on hold but painted a pretty depressing picture, estimating that U.S. GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020

 

2nd of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

14th of July, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

30th of July, GDP

Higher than Expected

 

7th of August, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment rate

Better than Expected

 

11th of August, CPI data

Higher than Expected

 

20th of August, Jobless Claims

Worse than Expected

 

25th of August, CB Consumer data

Worse than Expected

 

27th of August, GDP

Better than Expected

 

3rd of September, Initial Jobless Claims

Better than Expected

 

4th of September, Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

11th of September, CPI

Higher than Expected

 

1st of October, Initial Jobless Claims data

Better than Expected

 

2nd of October, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Better than Expected

 

8th of October, Initial Jobless Claims

Better than Expected